Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Welcome to the second (and final) installment of the critically acclaimed “Previewing the Option Decisions” series. I covered the National League on Tuesday, and today we’ll have the American League sequel. Let’s get to it.
Baltimore Orioles
Mike Elias and his front office have five (!) club options to decide upon, but most of the choices are going to be easy ones. Eloy Jiménez, who has been a platoon bat since coming over from the White Sox, is going to have his $16.5 million option turned down; Seranthony Domínguez ($8 million), Danny Coulombe ($4 million), and Cionel Pérez ($2.2 million) will all have their options exercised to beef up the bullpen behind returning closer Félix Bautista. (Pérez is eligible for arbitration for two more seasons even if his option is declined.)
The one fascinating call will be what to do about Ryan O’Hearn, who has a $7.5 million club option for next season. Just a couple of months ago, exercising the option looked like a no-brainer. At the end of July, O’Hearn was hitting .273/.344/.457 (128 wRC+) while starting at first base or in right field against righties. Since then, he’s held onto his strong-side platoon role, but his season has taken a turn for the worse. O’Hearn is batting just .209/.283/.296, which works out to an anemic 70 wRC+, across 127 plate appearances since the beginning of August. Considering he provides little value in the field or on the bases, O’Hearn needs to break out of his slump soon to show the Orioles he’s worth keeping around. Baltimore has enough in-house talent to replace O’Hearn; even if Anthony Santander leaves in free agency, the O’s could roll with Coby Mayo at first, Heston Kjerstad in right, and Ryan Mountcastle at DH.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox almost definitely will exercise their lone club option this offseason to keep Rob Refsnyder around for a modest $2 million. He’s been an immensely valuable platoon bat against lefty pitching for three seasons now; he has a 121 wRC+ since the start of 2022, including a sterling 153 mark against southpaws.
Righty starter Lucas Giolito can opt out this November, but he’s not going to turn down $19 million for 2025 after undergoing internal brace surgery and missing the entirety of this season. Since he didn’t have full-blown Tommy John surgery, the hope is that he’ll be good to go for the start of next season, though he certainly won’t be rushed back.
Chicago White Sox
If you’ve got a club option and the White Sox didn’t trade you, you’re obviously not worth having the option exercised. That’s the case for Yoán Moncada ($25 million) and Max Stassi ($7.5 million). Moncada suffered an adductor strain after playing in just 11 games and only just returned to the active roster on Monday, and Stassi’s been out all year after undergoing hip surgery; he hasn’t played in a major league game since 2022.
Cleveland Guardians
No option decisions.
Detroit Tigers
What to do with Casey Mize isn’t really a decision; he’s still eligible for arbitration for two more seasons if his $3.1 million club option is declined. He’s making only $830,000 this season, and because the previous year’s salary is important in arbitration, it’s plausible the Tigers could decline the option and hope to sign Mize to a smaller contract instead. Either way, he’ll be pitching for Detroit next season.
Shelby Miller also has a club option for $4.25 million. That’s a modest sum, but he’s had an up-and-down season. The Tigers boast a wealth of righty relief options for 2025 (Jason Foley, Will Vest, Beau Brieske, and Brenan Hanifee), and they might view Miller’s salary as best allocated elsewhere, insignificant as that amount may be.
Houston Astros
No option decisions.
Kansas City Royals
I already covered Michael Wacha’s player option when I went over qualifying offer possibilities last week; I fully expect him to decline his option so long as he remains healthy through the regular season and Kansas City’s potential playoff run. Adam Frazier will also hit free agency; his mutual option exists to essentially have $2.5 million deferred to 2025 in the form of a buyout.
That leaves two Royals with player option decisions: Hunter Renfroe and Chris Stratton. Stratton is currently on the IL with a flexor strain, always a scary injury that could lead to surgery. Before the injury, he wasn’t pitching well (5.55 ERA, 4.63 FIP in 58 1/3 innings), so I’d be surprised if he’s not back in Royals blue next year, earning $4.5 million. Renfroe’s had a better season than Stratton, but he’s still been replacement level; his only real skills are running into increasingly-more-infrequent homers and a strong throwing arm. I don’t see him doing better than his $7.5 million option.
Los Angeles Angels
No option decisions.
Minnesota Twins
All three of the Twins’ decisions are formalities, since they’re all mutual options. Utilityman Kyle Farmer and outfielder Manuel Margot will reach free agency once they have their options officially declined, and hard-throwing reliever Jorge Alcala will be eligible for arbitration one final time after his is turned down. He’ll probably do better than the $1.5 million value of his option anyway.
New York Yankees
Let’s start off with the Yankees’ three club options, all of which are easy choices. Anthony Rizzo’s $17 million option will be declined, and relief ace Luke Weaver will return and be grossly underpaid at $2 million. Meanwhile, Lou Trivino’s $5 million option might have been a tough call if he’d actually made it back to the majors this season, but he’s struggled in the minors on a Tommy John surgery rehab assignment.
The real spicy decision here lies with Gerrit Cole and his powerful agent, Scott Boras. Cole can opt out of the remaining four years and $144 million on his contract; if he does, the Yankees can either let him walk or tack on another year at $36 million to prevent him from leaving. Cole’s had a mercurial 15 starts since coming back from nerve irritation in his elbow: He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his starts, but four or more earned runs in four others. He’s yet to pitch into the seventh inning.
On the surface, that makes staying with New York an obvious call. But appearing on a Bleacher Report live stream, Jon Heyman of the New York Post predicted that Cole will, in fact, opt out, and that the Yankees will add the additional year to his deal to stop him from leaving.
I’m not so sure that things will play out just like that, because that would involve paying Cole $36 million for his age-38 season. Instead, I think Cole’s opting out could offer the opportunity for he and the Yankees to restructure his contract to tack on that extra season while lowering his average annual value. This would also give the Yankees some flexibility to re-sign Juan Soto.
Oakland Athletics
No option decisions.
Seattle Mariners
Jorge Polanco has disappointed with the Mariners since coming over in an offseason trade with the Twins. Overall, he’s been below replacement level with a rough 87 wRC+ and absolutely horrible defensive metrics at second base (-9 OAA, -4 DRS). Such meager production is not worth his $12 million club option for next year. That said, Polanco has improved during the second half (107 wRC+ entering play Thursday), which leaves open the possibility that the Mariners might bring him back, believing that he’s righted the ship. After all, over his final three seasons in Minnesota, Polanco combined for a 120 wRC+ — offensive production that’s been hard for Seattle to find. Moreover, the Mariners don’t have an obvious internal candidate to replace Polanco next season, though Ryan Bliss has been intriguing enough (100 wRC+ in 71 plate appearances) in his limited big league experience. My guess is Seattle doesn’t pick up Polanco’s option, but it’s not as clear-cut a decision as his overall season line would suggest.
Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon Lowe’s $10.5 million option isn’t a small amount of money when we’re talking about the Rays, but he’s done nothing but prove that he’s worth every bit of that salary whenever he’s been healthy enough to stay on the field. He’s appeared in only 272 games over the last three seasons, but he’s still produced 5.6 WAR and a 122 wRC+ in that limited action.
Lowe has gotten more time at DH and first base this year in an effort to keep him healthier and, perhaps, to make him more appealing to other teams via trade. What team he’s playing for next season is in question, but his option will surely be exercised.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have hit bingo: They’ve got a mutual option, a club option, and a player option to start out their offseason. David Robertson’s mutual option will be declined and the ageless wonder will hit the open market yet again, worthy of even more than the hefty $11.5 million he’ll have made from the Rangers once his deferrals are paid out.
Nathan Eovaldi probably will decline his $20 million player option. He might not quite match that average annual value in free agency, but he’s entering his age-35 season and this could be his last chance to earn a multi-year deal. His Rangers contract was for two years and $34 million, and I’m expecting a similar one for him this time around, though it could be a little better because he won’t be tethered to a qualifying offer.
The club option belongs to Andrew Chafin, effectively a $6 million decision (either a $6.5 million option or a $500,000 buyout). The southpaw has been mediocre since coming over from the Tigers, with a 4.30 ERA and 5.76 FIP. That makes me think his option will be declined, but the Rangers will have to consider the fact that they have three key relievers (Robertson, Kirby Yates, and José Leclerc) hitting free agency. Keeping Chafin around at the outset of the offseason could make it easier to construct a bullpen, even if they’d be paying him something of a premium.
Toronto Blue Jays
No option decisions.
